The Mac in the Gray Flannel Suit (4)

In the last post, I was talking about what I believe the next 3 to 5 years will have in store for us - business-wise. I talked about what I think is the start of the iPhone phenomenon in the entreprise. I then talked about dramatic changes in the server world, with Microsoft buying Zimbra, Ubuntu becoming the n.1 name in Linux, OS.X server getting through by the main door, and Google Apps/Zoho getting a substantial size of the SME market. In the third post I mentioned about the standard desktop PC falling to sub £299.

In this post, I will resume by talking about technology


Technology

1. There will be a huge fight between Facebook, Google, MySpace, Linkedin, to get into the entreprise with Facebook starting with a slight advantage. I am not sure who will the winner be after a while, as we might see consolidation and strong partnership developing, although I believe that Google's Open Standard for Social Network will position them extremely favourably.
2. SME's will EMBRACE Social Networking as the new means of collaboration (Facebook has already chat and document sharing capabilities) as it allows them to communicate much more efficiently than email - with strong selling points placed on malware protection, spam elimination, inviting ONLY your 'friends' and partners, etc.
3. Changes in the Wi-Fi/Wi-Max world will impact the telephony operators, mainly them looking for ways to beef up their 3G performance (4G?) to keep up with the connectivity demands of their customer (Internet access, social networking, video chat, etc.). Prices shouldn't necessarily come down (at least at the low end), but customers will get more for what they pay today (although the need for bandwidth and extras will level that out)...

Basically, social networking will evolve and we will see some market consolidations, but the concept and technology is here to stay. The need for privacy and security in the face of spam, viruses, and malware, will push many companies to use the 'intranet/extranet' paradigm of working. SMTP will continue as a transport mechanism although other protocols will run alongside it.

What it means, is that tomorrow giants will be Google (Orkut - currently number 1 worldwide), Facebook, Linkedin, etc, although large corporations will use their own flavour - possibly based on Open Source components - of Social Network. In this scenario, and providing Microsoft doesn't eventually buy them, Yahoo could have a few cards up their sleeve.

To conclude the series, I forecast very exciting coming years in the ICT world, where the shift that is starting right now - from desktop to cloud - will gain momentum and reshape the landscape.

If you want to talk financial:

• Cisco and Juniper are safe. We will always need what they sell. They have reached a critical mass like GE, which will always be there
• IBM, Apple, HP will be there. Each for its own set of reasons, but mainly they all have in common the fact that they are diversified, 'own' a lot of their end products (software, hardware, design, patents, etc.), have ahead thinking plans and simple delivery process, and create healthy ands faithful ecosystems around them
• Dell needs to depend less on Microsoft and get back to sell solid systems with great support if they want to survive. I think that selling Linux servers with a good margin is imperative to compete in the cut-throat area of cheap PCs/laptops
• Microsoft should never be written off, but the departure of Bill Gates has opened a psychological void. Whatever is thought of Bill Gates, he WAS the face of Microsoft, and when he spoke, people listened. Now that he is gone, there has been a worldwide shift about Microsoft perception. If Microsoft doesn't do something about its licensing issues, about a revamp of Exchange, about a less-hungry/less-bloated Operating System, we will see HUGE moves away to the Apple/Linux/Open Source camp. I expect the Vista/Office downard slide to continue and anticipate flat or negative quarters at least for another year.
• The mobile operators with the best ratio of network coverage/network performance/data price/contract attractiveness will gain dramatically. In the long term, I envisage (in the UK) 3/Vodaphone to struggle, O2/Orange to do very well, and T-Mobile to stay flat.
• The new kids on the block (although Google is hardly a new kid, but in the Social Networking it could be thought as one) are pulling all the stops. Which one, out of MySpace, Bebo, Friendster, Linkedin, Gaia, DeviantArt will eat the other one, or be eaten, or just go out of business? One thing is sure, Google/Orkut is going up, and Yahoo is going up. Linked is most probably going up.

What do you think?