In the last post, I was talking about what I believe the next 3 to 5 years will have in store for us - business-wise. I talked about what I think is the start of the iPhone phenomenon in the entreprise. I then talked about dramatic changes in the server world, with Microsoft buying Zimbra, Ubuntu becoming the n.1 name in Linux, OS.X server getting through by the main door, and Google Apps/Zoho getting a substantial size of the SME market.
In this post, I will resume by talking about the Desktop world
Desktop world
In this post, I will resume by talking about the Desktop world
Desktop world
- Companies like IBM, Sun, SalesForce, SAP, Cisco, etc. will come up in the next 2 years with an update to their products that will be Mac-as-on-PC and Linux-as-on-Windows compatible. They will make a BIG deal of it.
- We will hear of big moves from XP to Mac or XP to Linux, this time not only limited to government agencies or charities, but also from reputable companies. Some moves will be triggered by a change of server technology (Apple Xserve, Linux), move of application technology to platform 'independent'(MsSQL to Oracle/MySQL,ProgresQL/etc) making dependance on Microsoft OS less attractive.
- We will see a significant increase of sub-£299 laptop and sub-£200 desktop in the low end. They will mainly be running Linux or a streamlined (customized?) version of XP
The shift has already started: lBM has a large Mac platform pilot, Salesforce is moving to Macs, the eePC pioneered a sub-£299 PC/laptop concept that is now being followed by other manufacturers, etc.
What this means in the long term, is that Microsoft's vaporware Windows 7 has to take this trend into account in its design. If they want to sell at least as many copies of Windows 7 as Vista, they might have to delay its release until its specifications are slimmed down. It also mean that the couple AMD/ATI have better chances to greater market share than today, although the overall outlook would be for thinner margins - including for PC manufacturers.
I also see companies being prepared to partly subsidize a cheap laptop to their roaming employees, instead of purchasing a more expensive one that would be depreciated over 3 years.
In the next post, we will look at technology in general...
What do you think?
What this means in the long term, is that Microsoft's vaporware Windows 7 has to take this trend into account in its design. If they want to sell at least as many copies of Windows 7 as Vista, they might have to delay its release until its specifications are slimmed down. It also mean that the couple AMD/ATI have better chances to greater market share than today, although the overall outlook would be for thinner margins - including for PC manufacturers.
I also see companies being prepared to partly subsidize a cheap laptop to their roaming employees, instead of purchasing a more expensive one that would be depreciated over 3 years.
In the next post, we will look at technology in general...
What do you think?
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